Can drought and flood hazard be skillfully assessed at fine spatial resolution from combining constrained streams of observed, remotely sensed and model predicted data in Sri Lanka and Maldives?
Hazards Summary
- Project Implementation Planning
After the award of the project in October of 2015, we have undertaken planning among the partners and out-reach institutions on the project work. We scoped out the work initially with project team and colleagues on the past FECT PEER grants. We revisited the collaboration with the US (Columbia University, University of Maine, NASA) and Maldivian partners (Maldives Meteorological Service, Maldives National University).
- Project Planning for Maldives
Following discussions among co-PI’s Zubair and Zahid in the Maldives during the climate and water workshop in September 2015, we followed up with another set of visits for project planning. Dr. Zahid Deputy Director General of the Maldives Meteorological Services (MMS) visited FECT in Sri Lanka in December 2015, and P. Wickramagamage (PI) and L. Zubair (co-PI) visited Maldives in May 2016 were able to engage with co-PI Dr. Zahid, and also met Wahid (Director General), Muaz (Instrument Engineer), and Rasheed (Director of weather forecasting) of the Maldives Meteorological Service. A review meeting on project and planning ahead was held with the Director-General of Meteorology Maldives and other senior officials where we focused on setting up soil moisture observatory sites.
The PI and co-PIs met with the staff at the Maldives National University (Shazla Mohamed (Dean), Mizna Mohamed (Senior Lecturer), Somnath (IT lecturer teaching GIS)), Maldives Land Survey Authority (Shafi – Director General), Environmental Protection Authority (Yazeed), and Ministry of Environment (Mohamed Musthafa – Director, Shaheeda – Director General Water Division, and Afzal).
We identified the information needs of the stakeholders / decision makers. We discussed ongoing coral bleaching with the El Nino with the Director of Marine Research Center (Dr. Shiham Adam).
- Installation of Soil Moisture Probes in Male
In September 2016, L. Zubair was able to visit with Zahid again and provided soil moisture data loggers to the Maldives Meteorological Service to complement the soil moisture probes. During this visit, further discussions were held with the DG of the Maldives Meteorological Service. He also provided a workshop to the final year students in the Bachelors in Environmental Management program on research topics and plans.
- Staff Recruitment
We advertised in newspapers and recruited staff to work on the project. Some staff who were attached to our recently concluded projects were taken in (Prabodha Agalawatte, Janan Vishwanathan) junior scientists (Indika Sandamali, Akram Kamiss, Udara Ratnayake and C. Gunaratne, Aishath Afaaf) writer (Shafna Sadeek) and Dr. Madura Dharmadasa were oriented on literature, data, tools and software. Internship opportunities were provided at FECT for undergraduates.
- Setting up Infrastructure
The infrastructure for the project was organized and expanded – this includes office space, computing environment, supplies and other arrangements. Facilities for cloud-based services was expanded and our internet connections were upgraded.
- Data Acquisition
We were able to obtain a fraction of the data required for this project – particularly on climate, disasters and socio-economic data in Sri Lanka and Maldives Meteorological data (Rainfall, Temperature, Humidity) up to 2015. We have assembled an inventory of all available data and literature. A preliminary analysis of hazards data available in Sri Lanka was conducted; and we have developed an operational system for monthly drought estimation spatially. Some data for GIS work for the Maldives was obtained and we have organized GIS data sets for the Maldives. Further data gathering is going on for climate, environment and disaster data in Sri Lanka and in the Maldives.
- Water Scarcity Modeling for Great Male
We have implemented a water scarcity analysis and system dynamics model for island-by-island water scarcity for Maldives and planning for observational work on soil moisture. We are in the process of developing a management system for historical data in Sri Lanka and the Maldives.
- Automated Weather Systems and Soil Moisture Systems
The automated weather systems installed in Sri Lanka are functioning satisfactorily, and data is updated to the website and communicated via the internet.
http://www.tropicalclimate.org/myweatherdirectory/index.htm
Four soil moisture probes, a field transmitter and data loggers were handed over to the Maldives Met Services for checks on compatibility and installation. Data loggers were also provided.
- Website and Communication
We have developed a project website, and continued email communication with researchers, stakeholders and users.
Monthly and Weekly Climate Reports: We continued our weekly, monthly and annual climate assessments for Sri Lanka and Maldives and have made it publicly available via our websites and through a mailing list.
Social Media: We have disseminated climate information and other relevant news by blogs (and through signing up for blog-aggregators), through facebook pages, and twitter accounts. Flyer: Project flyers were prepared and distributed in Maldives and Sri Lanka.
SPECIFIC CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE PROJECT
- Development of GIS for use in the Maldives
At the request of the Director of Water Resources at the Ministry of Environment and Energy in the Maldives, the PI, P. Wickramagamage has been refining the publicly available GIS data sets by using the remotely sensed satellite images. A Training program has been proposed for the Ministry. These data sets are being used by students at the University of Peradeniya in class exercises and to help with further refinement.
- May 2016 Disaster
There was a major disaster involving flooding and landslides in Sri Lanka from 15-19th May 2016 across Western Sri Lanka leading to approximately 200 deaths, tens of thousands made homeless, and disruption of homes. This disaster led us to update our analysis and communicate more frequently on social media. Our predictions had anticipated the heavy rainfall and this information had been passed on in social media. We have reported on the climate and weather factors surrounding the disaster.
Although we had included landslide analysis in our proposal, we had removed that component from this work on revision to fit within allotted budget and need to focus on Maldives. Still, we provided the information possible on Floods and some documentation of the landslide.
Thereafter a team of 7 of our staff led by the PI visited the site of the slide at Aranayaka. A visit report was written up.
- Flooding in Pinga Oya (at Akurana, Kandy), Sri Lanka
We have been providing technical input to an environment committee formed by civil society in Akurana which is a main town on the Pinga Oya a tributary of the Mahaweli river in Central Sri Lanka. We have provided a revised road map for reducing flood risks in Akurana to civil society and to the Member of Parliament for the region. We have also been canvassing local government and central government officials concerned with disasters, surveying and river basin management. We are undertaking a review of the floods in Akurana, and landslides at Aranayaka. We are partnering with a semi-government organization which has a mini-hydropower plant in the region on data acquisition helping them set up a weather station near a site which had a landslide disaster in May 2016.
- Analysis of Impacts of Proposed Sampur Coal Power Plant on Climate and Hazards
A new coal power plant has been proposed on the Eastern Coast of Sri Lanka and concerned citizens requested for our input. We have focused on the disasters component of the EIA and the impacts on the climate system. Our contributions were through the national newspapers, popular news websites and social media. Eventually, the co-PI (Zubair) were requested to contribute to the Environment Committee of the one of the regulatory agencies – the Public Utilities Commission – and now functions as a member.
2017
- Project Implementation
During this year, we were able to make rapid progress in setting up infrastructure such as websites, data sets, software, trained personnel and in obtaining preliminary output. We revisited the collaboration with the US and Maldivian partners.
- Project Implementation for Maldives
Researcher Prabodha Agalawatte visited with Dr. Zahid and Mr. Aslam of LaMEr in helping with the setting up of instrumentation for weather station and a soil moisture gauge. Discussion were held among co-PI’s Zubair and Zahid in the February 2017 and in July 2017. in September 2015, we followed up with another set of visits for project planning. During these visits, discussion was held with Dr. Zahid Deputy Director General of the Maldives Meteorological Services (MMS), Mr. Wahid (Director General), Mr. Muaz (Instrument Engineer), and Mr Rasheed (Director of weather forecasting) of the Maldives Meteorological Service. A review meeting on project and planning ahead was held with these officials during the visit with Dr. Caroly Shumway.
The co-PIs met with the staff at the Maldives National University (Shazla Mohamed (Dean), Mizna Mohamed (Senior Lecturer), Somnath (IT lecturer teaching GIS)), Environmental Protection Authority (Yazeed), and Ministry of Environment (Majeeda Mohamed) and the Director of Marine Research Center (Dr. Shiham Adam).
- Re-Installation of Soil Moisture Probes in Male
After taking the Soil Moisture probes back to Sri Lanka in January, we were able to reinstall these after testing and change of configuration in Meteorological Service. Dr. Zubair provided a workshop to the final year students in the bachelor’s in environmental management and IT program on research.
- Staff Recruitment
Several staff members continued with the project while others moved on to other assignments. (Prabodha Agalawatte, Janan Vishwanathan, Ruchira Lokuhetti, Indika Sandamali, Akram Kamiss, Udara Ratnayake, Shashini Rathnayake, K. Shobana). During the course of the year, Janan Vishwanathan and Ruchira Lokuhetti stayed through while others left and were replaced by– Ashara Nijamdeen, Manusha Lakmali, Tuan Hadgie, Jonathan Frank, Himash Ariyarathne, Duleeka Watugodapitiya, Charuni Jayasekera, F. Shakira, Nushrath Najimudeen, Asansa Abewardene, Tharuka Rankothge Chalani Malge and VPD Pubudini recruited. They were oriented on literature, data, tools and software. Internship opportunities were provided at FECT for undergraduates.
- Infrastructure
Facilities for presenting seminars, video conferencing and remote communication were improved at FECT. Office security was improved considerably.
- Data Acquisition
We were able to obtain a further fraction of the data required for this project – particularly on climate and socio-economic data in Sri Lanka and Maldives Meteorological data. We have assembled an inventory of all available data and literature. We have distributed monthly drought estimation spatially.
- Water Scarcity Modeling
We have started on the water scarcity analysis for the Greater Male region and islands in the Huvadhoo Atoll.
- Automated Weather Systems and Soil Moisture Systems
The automated weather systems installed in Sri Lanka and Maldives are functioning satisfactorily, and data is updated to the website and communicated via the internet.
http://www.tropicalclimate.org/myweatherdirectory/index.htm
The soil moisture probes, a field transmitter and data loggers handed over to the Maldives Met Services are now installed in the observatories of the MMS. A weather station and air pollution monitoring instrument were handed over to the Maldives National University.
- Website and Communication
We have further improved the project website and linked it to the website. We continued email communication with researchers, stakeholders and users using Mailchimp.
Monthly and Weekly Climate Reports: We regularly continued our weekly, monthly and annual climate assessments for Sri Lanka and Maldives and have made it publicly available via our websites and through a mailing list.
- Social Media: We have disseminated climate information and other relevant news by blogs (and through signing up for blog-aggregators), through facebook pages, and twitter accounts.
- Flyer: Project flyers were prepared and distributed in Maldives and Sri Lanka.
SPECIFIC CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE PROJECT
Development of Text on the Geography of the Maldives
The PI, P. Wickramagamage is seeking to fill the lack of a Geography textbook for Maldives through some preliminary introductory material.
- Ongoing Drought
17 of the 25 districts were severely affected by drought until August 2017. The drought abated for some regions with floods in May 2017. The magnitude of this drought was brought out through mapping drought indices and distributed. In addition, the climatic drivers to this drought – the role of El Nino and La Nina were explained.
- El Nino Impacts on Corals
Due to the El Nino event in 2016 and the warming Arabian Sea, there was alarming coral bleaching in parts of Sri Lanka and the Maldives. We have mapped out the spatial and temporal character of the oceanic temperature variation and its role in explaining the magnitude of the coral bleaching. Further work is ongoing.
- Follow up to May 2016 Disaster
After the major disaster involving flooding and landslides in Sri Lanka from 15-19th May 2016, we have undertaken a review of the antecedent conditions leading to these disasters. We are working on a comprehensive compilation. Our staff have visited the locality, and met the local government, hospital, agricultural and energy managers in this region 3 times.
- Flooding in Pinga Oya (at Akurana, Kandy), Sri Lanka
We have been providing technical input to an environment committee formed by civil society in Akurana which is a main town on the Pinga Oya a tributary of the Mahaweli river in Central Sri Lanka. During this year, this committee has presented an action plan to the MP of the area. We have used the past work we have undertaken through the PEER projects in informing the community of what contemporary science and research have to say.
- Follow up to May 2016 Disaster
After the major disaster involving flooding and landslides in Sri Lanka from 15-19th May 2016, we have undertaken a review of the antecedent conditions leading to these disasters. We are working on a comprehensive compilation. Our staff have visited the locality, and met the local government, hospital, agricultural and energy managers in this region 3 times.
- Analysis of Impacts of Norochcholai Coal Power Plant on Climate and Hazards
The co-PI (Zubair) contributed to the Environment Committee of the national utilities regulatory agencies – the Public Utilities Commission – as a member. During this year, fishermen and farmers in the area were admitted to the committee on the intervention of the Supreme Court. Dr. Zubair had previously engaged with this community and was able to help them given that he is the sole member of the Committee able to converse in Tamil
2018
HIGHLIGHTS: During this period, we
- Set up instrumentation on weather monitoring in Thinadhdhoo island and fixed the station in Maathhoda in Maldives where the console was having errors and made arrangements to obtain additional data in Maldives
- Obtained hazards and climate data, setting up instrumentation on soil moisture, air pollution and weather stations in two locations in Sri Lanka – one on a coastal location in Kalpitiya Peninsula in Puttalam, and another on top of a hill station in Kandy
- Participated in drawing up policy on climate change research and environmental pollution for the private sector initiative in Sri Lanka
- Previously installed instrumentation was maintained, and quality control of data was undertaken.
- We helped Maldivian partners develop a pre-proposal on coral bleaching for PEER Cycle 8. We supported their full proposal development which fell short. We helped Sri Lanka partners with a successful proposal on manmade disasters to Open Society Foundation.
- We continued to support decision making by water and environmental and natural resource managers through providing a weekly and monthly climate reports for Sri Lanka and Maldives.
- we released the Drought Portals for the Maldives and Sri Lanka. These portals are a comprehensive resource on Drought for either country which is useful for school children, undergraduates, resource managers, policymakers, and the educated public.
- We provided climate analysis for disaster experts.
DISASTER CASE STUDIES: We continued research on flood events in Akurana, Kandy, Ratnapura and in Puttalam District. Landslides in Aranayaka was analyzed to model climate variables. These case studies were reported at an International Scientific Conference in Sri Lanka.
DATA COLLECTION: We collected data (weather, wind and air quality) in Maldives (Male, Maathoda) and Sri Lanka (Norachcholai, Kalpitiya, Nawalapitiya, and Kandy). Data on rain water harvest storage tanks in Maldives Islands were obtained. Simultaneously Digitization, Quality control, and documentation were undertaken, and we are also entering the data into the IRI Data Library.
PROPOSAL DEVELOPMENT:
We submitted a supplementary proposal entitled “STEM Education and Capacity Building for Resources and Risk Management in Remote Outposts capitalizing on PEER projects on water, drought and hazards: Gaafu Dhaalu Atoll in Southern Maldives in collaboration with Small Island research Centre, GDh Atoll, Maldives.
We supported the development of the PEER cycle 8 proposal entitled ‘Coral Bleaching Studies in the Maldives: Towards developing Environmental and Economic Resiliency for Atoll Ecosystems’ led by our Maldivian partners. The pre-proposal was successful, but the full proposal was not awarded. We hope to support research work on this area regardless.
We have also developed a small grant proposal to document the Kandy Mob Violence Disaster with a view to developing work on man-made disasters and its predictions and submitted it to the Open Society Foundation which has since been awarded.
INSTRUMENTATION: Purchasing of weather stations and other instruments were done this year. We also hope to better mitigate the problems that arose in network connections of the existing instruments and problems we faced during data extraction from these instruments.
We managed the collected data and setting up a regular protocol to collect the data from the instruments already installed will be standardized. This helped us identify, fill in the lost or missing data, fix the damaged or erroneous data and better data quality control was achieved.
We will continue to work on assessing vulnerability and resilience to different disasters, hazard impact analysis and writing up Research on Selected Disasters to be taken forward.
AIR POLLUTION: We undertook further research; air pollution analysis in two selected regions in Sri Lanka, the Western shore of the Puttalam District (Kalpitiya) and in the Western Highlands of the Kandy district (Nawalapitiya, Akurana) was undertaken. Data collection was undertaken for both areas from our own weather instruments which we set up and data from selected government institutions. Our work shall compare Air Quality and wind data in Colombo, Nawalapitiya and Norochcholai to track the long-range transport of coal dust from the Norochcholai coal power plant to the Highlands of Sri Lanka and to the densely populated Western Province.
SUPPLEMENTARY PROJECT:
We have also continued work in the supplementary proposal for STEM education in the Maldives by the Maldivian partners – Small Island Research Group/Centre. For this, we have contributed to
- Drawing up the work plan for the project to account for revised budget
- Purchase of equipment for the project for water quality testing, weather station, microscopes and ancillaries
- Meeting with the project partners and remote communication
- Visit to Male Offices of the Small Island Research Group/Centre to discuss project with Aishath Abdulla and Hussein Zahir of the Small Island Research Group.
- Visit to Maldives National University in Male to discuss ongoing work on air quality and to make arrangements for STEM work.
- Visit to MNU in Thinadhdhoo island of Huvadhoo Atoll for collaboration on STEM project. They arranged our engagement with the Atoll School.
- Visit to Maathoda office off the Small Island Research Centre/Group to undertake arrangements for the STEM project, to check on weather station, make arrangements for handover and installation of microscope and water quality instruments. Here the co-PI, Zubair was able to meet with the PI M. Aslam and have substantial planning discussions and also handover equipment.
- Meeting with Principal of Huvadhoo School to arrange for STEM project work. As follow up permission are being sought from the Zonal Education Director.
- Handing over scientific equipment for the middle school students of the G. Dh. Atoll Education Centre Thinadhdhoo, Small Island Research Centre who will be a part of this project.
- We are undertaking discussions on how to manage the supplementary project with our partners.
We have visited the Maldives and met with project partners and had meetings. The main purpose of the visit was to collect data from the Maldives National University (MNU) and Maldives Meteorological Service (MMS), La MER and to discuss the work the project and with Small Island Research Group and Maldives FECT.
Blogs for Climate Advisories for the following
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