Title: Developing Monitoring Tools for Managing Drought Risk and addressing the Riddle of Increased Drought Tendency amidst the Wetter Climate Change Projections for Sri Lanka and Maldives

Principal investigator: Dr. Lareef Zubair
Duration: October 2015-September 2016

Summary

Drought Hazard Analysis and Monitoring
• We were able to acquire a good fraction of the data required.
• Soil moisture probes, a field transmitter and data loggers were handed over to the Maldives Met Services.
• We have developed algorithms to estimate drought indices based on climate indices for both Maldives and Sri Lanka.
• We are calculating the Weighted Anomaly Standardized Precipitation (WASP) index to monitor drought conditions for entire Sri Lanka.

 Assess Climate Change
• The projections for drought based on the IPCC’s CMIP5 archive have been generated for Sri Lanka.
• Near-Term climate change projections, based on IPCC’s CMIP5 data archives, have been done for 5 different regions of Sri Lanka. Based on these projections, expected dry spells in the future can be assessed in addition to changes in rainfall patterns within a year in the future. We are planning to extend these projections to cover other regions in Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

Drought and Water Scarcity Projections
• We have updated the water scarcity analysis and system dynamics model for island-by-island water scarcity for Maldives. 
• Analysis of the impact of MJO on rainfall in Maldives has been completed and report writing is in progress.  Analysis of the trends of the number of days with extreme rainfall and number of dry days in Sri Lanka is in progress. 

Dissemination and Outreach
• We continued to disseminate our weekly, monthly and annual climate assessments for Sri Lanka and Maldives and have made it publicly available via social media networks.
• Continued dissemination of drought monitoring products for Sri Lanka and Maldives. 
• We have disseminated climate information and other relevant news by blogs and through facebook pages, and twitter accounts.
• A poster book for Maldives which compiles all our posters; and project flyers were prepared, printed and distributed in Maldives and Sri Lanka. 
• The research findings on climate prediction, water supply and environmental management in Sri Lanka and Maldives were presented at workshops.
• We documented the workshop on climate and water that was organized through the project in 2015 and held with the Maldives National University in 2015. Included this work in the courses taught at Universities in Sri Lanka and Maldives. 
•Preparation of research reports on climate of Maldives and Sri Lanka; and drafting of seasonal climate Analysis for Maldives. 
•Presentation of project related work at conferences.

Capacity Building
• Improved the infrastructure required for research.
• Recruitment of staff for documentation, and orientation of new recruits.
• Co-PI conducting a workshop in Maldives for the final year students in the Bachelors in Environmental Management program on research topics and plans. 
• We have set up Geographic Information Systems for Sri Lanka and Maldives. Collaborations and engagement with stakeholders
• Continued collaboration with partners and colleagues in Sri Lanka and Maldives.
• Hosted workshops and review meetings in Sri Lanka and Maldives. 
• Interacted with PEER grantees at the Andalas University, in Indonesia.
•The PI participated at the platform dialogues in the Panel of Speakers on “Implementing Sustainable Development Goals at Local & Provincial Government Level”.
•Contributed to the Environmental Committee of Akurana to recommend measures to mitigate floods and environmental issues in Akurana.

Publications
Yahiya, Z., (2015).” Relative roles of climate and societal factors in water scarcity and flooding Sri Lanka and Maldives and its implications". Book Program, 2015 International Conference on Green Development in Tropical Regions, West Sumatera, Indonesia. Pp84.  October 28-31, 2015.

Agalawatte, P., Yahiya, Z., Zubair, L. and Nawarathna, B. (2016). “Intra-Seasonal Climate Predictions for Water Resources Management in Sri Lanka”. IPWE 2016 8th International Perspective on Water Resources and the Environment, workshop of the American Society of Civil Engineers; 4-6 January 2016, IPWE conference paper no: 266.

Yahiya, Z., Zubair, L., Agalawatte, P., Viswanathan, J., Wijeratne, K., Zahid, M., Mizna Mohamed, Majeeda Mohamed, and Rasheed, M. (2016). “Operational Island-Scale Water Scarcity Assessment for the Maldives”. IPWE 2016 8th International Perspective on Water Resources and the Environment, workshop of the American Society of Civil Engineers; 4-6 January 2016, IPWE conference paper no: 264.

Technical report

Agalawatte, P., Ratnayake, U., Yahiya, Z., and Zubair, L. (2015). “The Climate over Sri Lanka up to the Yala of 2015”. Technical report (10) Foundation for Environment, Climate and Technology, Digana.

Posters

Ratnayake, U., L. Zubair, P. Agalawatte, Z. Yahiya, Zahid (MMS), K. Wijeratne, S. Sherpa. (2015). Estimation of water scarcity in Maldives (poster).

Yahiya, Z., K. Wijeratne, U. Ratnayake, L. Zubair, Y. Ashraj, A. Afaaf, Zahid (MMS), M.Rasheed (MWSC), M. Majeeda & M. Mizna (MNU). (2015). Availability of Fresh water in Male’ Maldives (poster).

Agalawatte, P., Zubair, L., Zahid (MMS), Yahiya, Z., Visvanathan, J, Bell, M. (IRI) (2015). Monthly Climate Advisories for the Maldives.

Sandamali, I., P. Agalawatte, Z. Yahiya, L. Zubair, C. Gunaratne (FECT), M. Majeeda, (MNU), A. Nishan, (HPA), Zahid (MMS), (2015). Annual, Seasonal, Regional ad Inter-Annual Dengue in Maldives.

Sandamali, I., P. Agalawatte, Z. Yahiya, L. Zubair, C. Gunaratne (FECT), M. Majeeda, (MNU), A. Nishan, (HPA), (2015).

Relationship of Dengue Incidence with Climate in Maldives.
Yahiya, Z., L. Zubair, P. Agalawatte, I.Sandamali, U. Ratnayake, Zahid (MMS). (2015). Seasonality of Climate in Maldives (poster).

Agalawatte, P., Kamiss, A., Bell, M., John Del Corral, Blumenthal, B., Sherpa, S., Yahiya, Z., Zubair, L. (2015). Satellite based Rainfall Monitoring for Maldives.

Agalawatte, P., Zubair, L., Zahid (MMS), Yahiya, Z., Kamiss, A., C. Gunaratne (2015). El Nino and La Nina influences on the Climate of the Maldives.

Agalawatte, P., Zubair, L., Zahid (MMS), Yahiya, Z., Kamiss, A., (2015). Impact of Madden Julian Oscillation on the Maldives.

Technical research Presentations

Yahiya, Z. “Relative roles of climate and societal factors in water scarcity and flooding in Sri Lanka and Maldives and its implications” at the 2015 International Conference on Green Development in Tropical Regions, organized by Andalas University, Indonesia held in West Sumatera, Indonesia, from 28 - 31 October 2015. 

Zubair, L. "Climate Variability and Change in the Tropical Indian Ocean Islands: Implication for Water Security and Green Development" at the 2015 International Conference on Green Development in Tropical Regions, organized by Andalas University, Indonesia held in West Sumatera, Indonesia, from 28 - 31 October 2015. 

Zubair, L. "Environmental Management Challenges under Rapid Urbanization: Lessons from Pinga Oya catchment of Sri Lanka's Mahaweli River". 8th International Perspective on Water Resources and the Environment. Cinnamon Grand Colombo, Sri Lanka. January 4-6, 2016.

Yahiya, Z. “Operational Island-Scale Water Scarcity Assessment for the Maldives”. 8th International Perspective on Water Resources and the Environment. Cinnamon Grand Colombo, Sri Lanka. January 4-6, 2016.P.

Agalawatte "Intra-Seasonal Climate Predictions for Water Resources Management in Sri Lanka." 8th International Perspective on Water Resources and the Environment. Cinnamon Grand Colombo, Sri Lanka. January 4-6, 2016.

L. Zubair, Panelist on Communication of Science, Technology and Innovation National Forum, Ministry of Science and Technology, Colombo – 7, September 7-10th, 2016.  L. Zubair, Invited to Committee on Environment, Convened by the Public utilities commission of Sri Lanka, September 13,2016.